What is the best strategy, balancing risk and reward, for this Kalshi proposition?
Commodities
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Oil & Gas
Oil Price (WTI) on Friday?
2,011
Begins on Friday
·
May 15, 12:00am EDT
$
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5
4
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1
0
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0
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0
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0
▼
9
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%
Updated 2d 20h ago
May 1
May 5
May 7
May 9
May 11
$90.00
$95.00
$100.00
$105.00
$110.00
Above 101.99
$54,921 vol
1W
1M
Chance
$88.99 or below
Yes 15¢
No 86¢
$89 to 89.99
Yes 3¢
No 98¢
$90 to 90.99
Yes 5¢
No 96¢
$91 to 91.99
Yes 5¢
No 96¢
$92 to 92.99
Yes 4¢
No 97¢
$93 to 93.99
Yes 4¢
No 97¢
$94 to 94.99
Yes 4¢
No 97¢
$95 to 95.99
Yes 6¢
No 96¢
$96 to 96.99
Yes 5¢
No 96¢
$97 to 97.99
Yes 5¢
No 96¢
$98 to 98.99
Yes 6¢
No 95¢
$99 to 99.99
Yes 5¢
No 96¢
$100 to 100.99
Yes 6¢
No 96¢
$101 to 101.99
Yes 5¢
No 96¢
$102 or above
Yes 33¢
No 68¢
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The best strategy, balancing risk and reward, is to immediately buy "No" on the "$102 or above" bin at 68¢, sized at quarter-Kelly (~2,500–3,500 contracts), with the option to add a center-bin ladder on Friday morning if volatility and pric…
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