The Conclave
How it works
The process

Six labs. Seven stages. One decision.

The Conclave doesn't ask one model — it forces six of them to argue, anonymized to each other, until a measurable majority converges on one answer. Here is what happens between the moment you hit submit and the PDF you get back.

The Process — ~30 minutes, fully visible while it runs
1. Briefing
The question and any attached documents are delivered to all six panelists at once.
2. Independent submissions
Each model writes its answer in isolation, before seeing the others.
3. Anonymized debate
Submissions are stripped of authorship and exchanged. Across multiple rounds, models challenge the strongest claims in each other's work and defend, rebut, or concede.
4. Live fact-checking
After round one, an off-panel model with web access searches for counter-evidence to each panelist's strongest claims and feeds it into the next round.
5. Judges deliberate
A separate panel of judge-model instances reads the full transcript and votes (Affirm / Remand / Dismiss).
6. Fresh-eyes audit
A model that wasn't part of the debate audits the consensus for groupthink.
7. Decision rendered
Names are de-anonymized; the final document — The Question, The Answer, The Reasoning, each model's closing statement, and Notable items — is written and downloadable as a PDF.

The room doesn't open until the panel's measured agreement score crosses a threshold. In practice that's by round four or five. If a model never agrees, its dissent is preserved in its closing statement.

Model selection

Six labs, one room.

Each panelist comes from a different lab — different training data, different priorities, different post-training reflexes. They genuinely disagree. When they still reach a majority, the answer survived the disagreement that produced it.

The Panel — each seat earns its keep
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic
Long-form rigor. Holds positions under pressure without over-conceding.
GPT-5OpenAI
Step-by-step logic. Best at finding holes in the others' arguments.
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle
Real-time web search. Brings facts the others have to reason about.
Grok 4xAI
Less hedged than the western trio. Willing to take and defend a contrarian line.
DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek · open-weight
Frontier reasoning trained outside the US labs. Different training distribution; different defaults.
Kimi K2.6Moonshot AI · open-weight
Trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts with extended reasoning. Long-context champion — best when the question has many moving parts. Different RLHF lineage than the western models.
+ Fact-checker — off-panel, kicks in after round 1
Perplexity Sonar ProPerplexity · Llama 3.3 70B + live web
Different shape than the others — a fine-tune of Meta's open Llama 3.3 70B paired with a live web index and citation engine. After round 1 it searches the web for counter-evidence to each panelist's strongest claims; the rebuttal brief is fed into the next debate round.

Frontier-tier only. No smaller substitutes when an API is unavailable — the seat goes empty rather than getting filled by a weaker model.

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Gallery

Past deliberations of the Conclave. Six AI models locked in a room until a majority agrees.

Newest Popular
What are the top use cases as to why people subscribe to the website semianalysis? The website is https://semianalysis.com/.
People subscribe to SemiAnalysis primarily for investment thesis development (using supply-chain primitives as input, not as directional stock picks) and technical/strategic understanding (translating engineering constraints into bu…
Gray smoke
Panel:GPT-5, Gemini, Grok, and 3 more
June 3, 2026
Provide a best in class estimate of the EBITDA and EBITDA margins for the following companies, decoposed by top line revenue, operarting expenses with tech and headcount broken out, depreciation, and other expenses, noting that they are private companies so you will need to do a lot of deep dives and research. • LinqAlpha • Fabricated Knowledge
LinqAlpha is estimated to generate $5.5–7.0M in revenue with negative EBITDA of roughly -$2.4M to -$3.1M (margin -40% to -60%), while Fabricated Knowledge is estimated to generate $0.9–1.0M in revenue with positive EBITDA of roughly $420k–5…
White smoke
Panel:Gemini, DeepSeek, GPT-5, and 3 more
June 3, 2026
Provide a best in class estimate of the EBITDA and EBITDA margins for the following companies, decoposed by top line revenue, operarting expenses with tech and headcount broken out, depreciation, and other expenses, noting that they are private companies so you will need to do a lot of deep dives and research. - Semi Analysis (I have been "told" they do in excess of $30M in revenue) - Fund A AI - AlphaSense - Hebbia - Rogo - LinqAlpha - Fabricated Knowledge
The Tribunal ruled to SYNTHESIZE the positions of Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Opus 4.7dvocate-B, producing unaudited, triangulated EBITDA estimates for companies with disclosed secondary data (SemiAnalysis, AlphaSense, Hebbia, Rogo, Linq…
Gray smoke
Panel:Gemini, GPT-5, DeepSeek, and 3 more
June 3, 2026
Who are the most notable direct competitors to Fund A AI (e.g., https://funda.ai/)?
Funda.ai's most notable direct competitors are AlphaSense (including Tegus), Hebbia, Rogo, and LinqAlpha.
Gray smoke
Panel:Claude, Magistral, DeepSeek, and 3 more
May 29, 2026
Who are the most notable direct competitors to Fund A AI (e.g., https://funda.ai/)?
No verdict
Panel:DeepSeek, Grok, Claude, and 2 more
May 29, 2026
Who are the most notable direct competitors to Fund A AI (e.g., https://funda.ai/)?
No verdict
Panel:Magistral, DeepSeek, GPT-5, and 2 more
May 29, 2026
Temporal Knowledge Graphs for Investment Edge How are investors using temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) to generate alpha? Cover: Edge thesis — What specific informational or analytical advantages do TKGs provide over traditional approaches (factor models, NLP sentiment, static KGs)? Where does the edge come from: faster signal extraction, novel relationships, regime detection, event chains? Technical requirements — Graph schema design (entities, edges, time validity), storage choices (Neo4j, TigerGraph, custom), temporal reasoning patterns (bitemporal, event-sourced), embedding approaches (TGN, TGAT, TComplEx), and latency constraints for different strategies. Signal requirements — What makes a TKG-derived signal tradeable? Decay characteristics, capacity, orthogonality to known factors, robustness to graph noise. Data sources & ingestion — Filings, news, transcripts, supply chain data, patents, hiring data, alt-data. How to extract entities/relationships with temporal validity, resolve identities across sources, and handle revisions/corrections. From graph to trade — Pipelines for converting graph queries or embeddings into ranked signals, sizing, and execution. Backtesting pitfalls specific to temporal graphs (lookahead bias in entity resolution, survivorship in the graph itself). Concrete examples — Funds or research groups doing this in production, with citations where possible. Be specific and technical. Skip generic AI-in-finance commentary.
Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) provide a mechanistically distinct and plausible information architecture for investment edge through bitemporal validity control, invalidation of stale facts, and multi-hop temporal reasoning.
Gray smoke
Panel:DeepSeek, Grok, Magistral, and 2 more
May 21, 2026
# SemiAnalysis Business Model Comparables Identify the companies whose business model most closely resembles **SemiAnalysis** (https://semianalysis.com/): a founder-led, independent research firm publishing deep technical analysis in a specific vertical (semis/AI), monetized primarily via a premium subscriber tier on top of free content, with adjacent revenue from bespoke consulting, proprietary data products, and events. ## A comparable must satisfy most of: - Independent (not sellside, not bank-affiliated, not a legacy analyst house) - Subscription-driven primary revenue at $500–$10k+/yr institutional pricing - Vertical-specific deep technical expertise — not generalist - Founder/personal brand as the distribution engine - Sells primarily to institutional buyers (hedge funds, corp strategy, operators) - Layered monetization: subs + consulting + data + events ## Exclude: - Sellside equity research - Full-service strategy consultancies (Bain/BCG/McK) - Legacy analyst firms (Gartner/Forrester/IDC) - Pure media (Bloomberg/The Information) - Free-only newsletters - Academic/think tanks ## For each comparable, provide: 1. Company + founder 2. Vertical 3. Estimated revenue and/or subscriber count — cite the source 4. Subscription pricing tiers 5. Similarity score to SemiAnalysis (1–5) and where the model breaks down ## Then defend a ranked top 3. Surface at least 2 comparables in non-tech verticals (energy, defense, biotech, fintech, crypto, shipping, macro, commodities). Do not default to the obvious convergence picks (Stratechery/Ben Thompson, The Information) unless you can demonstrate they fit the criteria better than less-cited alternatives.
The business model of SemiAnalysis is best matched by Thunder Said Energy, TankerTrackers.com, and The Linley Group, in that order.
White smoke
Panel:DeepSeek, Grok, Claude, and 3 more
May 20, 2026
# Conclave Prompt — Rajiv Endeavor: 3-Year Success Factors ## Context I'm Matt Murray — Senior GTM Strategy & Ops at DocuSign IAM, ex-Carlyle (late-stage PE), ex-tech investment banker, and ex-operator (ran a ~$240M industrial distribution business to exit). I'm building an AI consulting practice targeting hedge funds, law firms, and family offices, and I ship AI-native projects through coding agents (DC Scout, Negotiate, Tribunal, Cellarmate, Roll Your Own Memory, HumanizeAI). A friend, Rajiv, is pitching me to co-build an AI-native research lab as part of a fund he's raising. What he's shared so far: - He's actively raising. Deck goes to LPs Monday, calls and firm commits over the next month. - Proposed structure: Operating Company + Private Infrastructure Fund + Research Lab + SPV + "Act Two" (undefined). - Stated thesis: "bidirectional data flow" between the research lab and capital allocation — lab generates theses, fund deploys capital, fund outcomes and positions feed back into the lab as labeled signal and research priorities. - His value: managing and steering research (his stated multi-year background), mentoring talent, anchoring the fund. - His ask of me: be the AI-builder side of the lab. I bring agent and infrastructure shipping speed plus prior builds. Reference points he shared or that apply: - **Capability comp:** funda.ai (AI-native equity research sold to hedge funds; multi-million ARR in year one). - **Exit comp:** Venn by Two Sigma → Insight Partners (Jan 2026). - **Scale comp:** BlackRock Aladdin (~$1.5B annual revenue from external clients, managing $25T+ in assets). ## The Question What are the key success factors for this endeavor — the combined OpCo + Fund + AI-native Research Lab — to genuinely succeed over the next three years (target horizon: mid-2029)? Evaluate "success" along two axes, separately: 1. **Enterprise success.** The fund actually closes, the lab actually ships, the architecture works, and by mid-2029 the venture has either (a) deployed and returned capital on a credible Fund I track record, or (b) demonstrated a clearly externalizable Aladdin/Venn-shape lab, or ideally both. 2. **My personal success.** I have meaningful equity and/or carry that is vested or in clear sight, the role expanded with the business rather than getting eclipsed, the work materially advanced my AI-consulting practice or set up a venture-scale next move, and the relationship with Rajiv survived the deal. ## Specifically Address - The strategic, structural, and execution decisions made in the first 6–12 months that will most determine whether this works. - The dependencies likeliest to break the thesis if mishandled: LP base quality, asset class clarity, Rajiv's verifiable track record, the closed-loop architecture, competitive density vs. funda and internal hedge-fund AI teams, team build, IP ownership of my prior work. - What "looks fine on paper" but kills 3-year outcomes for ventures of this shape (first-time fund + captive tech operation + non-technical founder + technical co-founder). - Where I hold unique leverage entering this deal, and how to convert that leverage into terms. - A short verdict per axis on the conditions under which I should commit deeply, participate lightly, or decline. ## Ground Rules Adversarial perspectives are welcome and encouraged. I'd rather hear sharp disagreements among the panel than a smoothed consensus. If any panelist believes the entire premise is flawed, say so directly.
Matt should not commit as a co-founder on Monday. Instead, he should enter a 6-month paid advisory role with 1–2% equity in a standalone Platform OpCo, securing a Right of First Refusal (ROFR) to convert into a **25–30% co-f…
Gray smoke
Panel:Gemini, Claude, Magistral, and 3 more
May 20, 2026
# Japanese Companies Comparative Analysis Prompt You are an equity research analyst. Evaluate the following Japanese companies using a consistent, structured framework. ## Companies SMC, Fanuc, Mitsubishi Electric, Omron, Keyence, Daifuku, THK, Yaskawa, Kokusai, JEOL, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Ulvac, Screen, Tokyo Seimitsu, Tokyo Electron, Nitto Denko, Renesas, TDK, Taiyo Yuden, Kioxia, Minebea, Nitto Boseki, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Rohm, Ibiden, Kyocera, Nidec, Socionext, Sumco, Murata, NEC, Sony, Nintendo, Hitachi, Nomura Research Institute, Fujitsu, Nikon, Resonac ## Task Analyze every company listed above using the same evaluation framework. ## Step 1: Company-Level Analysis For each company, provide a concise but specific assessment for each category below. Use 2 to 4 sentences per category. ### 1. Nature of Business - Capital intensity over time - ROIC versus cost of capital - Margins versus competitors - Direction of ROIC and margins over time ### 2. Competitive Positioning - Sources of competitive advantage - Number of meaningful competitors - Change in competitive intensity over time - Risk of displacement from new technology ### 3. Customer Leverage - Importance of the product to the customer - Product cost as a percentage of customer product cost or bill of materials - Availability of alternatives from competitors - Customer switching costs ### 4. Growth Potential - Addressable market size and growth rate - Future technology or economic changes that could affect the market - Potential for meaningful market share gains or losses ### 5. Management Quality - Consistency of mission and goals - Execution against stated goals - Financial performance during current leadership tenure - Degree of board independence from management ## Step 2: Category Rankings After completing the company-level analysis, rank all companies relative to one another for each of the five categories above. ### Ranking rules - Use numeric rankings only - 1 = strongest / best - 41 = weakest / worst - Every company must receive one rank in each category - Do not use ties unless absolutely necessary ## Step 3: Overall Attractiveness Ranking Create one overall ranking of all companies based on the totality of the analysis. ### Overall ranking rules - 1 = most attractive - 41 = least attractive - Base the ranking on all five categories together, not on any single metric ## Step 4: Tiering Place each company into exactly one of the following groups based on overall attractiveness: 1. Above average companies 2. Average companies 3. Below average companies ## Output Format Structure the response in the following order: 1. Company-by-company analysis 2. Rankings for Nature of Business 3. Rankings for Competitive Positioning 4. Rankings for Customer Leverage 5. Rankings for Growth Potential 6. Rankings for Management Quality 7. Overall attractiveness ranking 8. Three-tier grouping ## Writing Instructions - Be concise, specific, and comparative - Apply the same standard across all companies - Avoid generic statements unless necessary - State assumptions where data is limited - Do not skip any company or category - Prefer plain English over overly academic language - Use tables wherever helpful for rankings or tiering ## Optional Scoring Upgrade If helpful, you may also assign a 1 to 10 score for each category before producing the forced rankings, as long as the final output still includes the required rank orderings.
Keyence is the most attractive Japanese company, ranked #1 overall, due to its unmatched combination of structurally high ROIC (>25% on operating assets), minimal capital intensity, and durable pricing power derived from its fabless, direct…
Gray smoke
Panel:Gemini, Magistral, GPT-5, and 3 more
May 18, 2026
# Japanese Companies Comparative Analysis Prompt You are an equity research analyst. Evaluate the following Japanese companies using a consistent, structured framework. ## Companies SMC, Fanuc, Mitsubishi Electric, Omron, Keyence, Daifuku, THK, Yaskawa, Kokusai, JEOL, Disco, Advantest, Lasertec, Ulvac, Screen, Tokyo Seimitsu, Tokyo Electron, Nitto Denko, Renesas, TDK, Taiyo Yuden, Kioxia, Minebea, Nitto Boseki, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Rohm, Ibiden, Kyocera, Nidec, Socionext, Sumco, Murata, NEC, Sony, Nintendo, Hitachi, Nomura Research Institute, Fujitsu, Nikon, Resonac ## Task Analyze every company listed above using the same evaluation framework. ## Step 1: Company-Level Analysis For each company, provide a concise but specific assessment for each category below. Use 2 to 4 sentences per category. ### 1. Nature of Business - Capital intensity over time - ROIC versus cost of capital - Margins versus competitors - Direction of ROIC and margins over time ### 2. Competitive Positioning - Sources of competitive advantage - Number of meaningful competitors - Change in competitive intensity over time - Risk of displacement from new technology ### 3. Customer Leverage - Importance of the product to the customer - Product cost as a percentage of customer product cost or bill of materials - Availability of alternatives from competitors - Customer switching costs ### 4. Growth Potential - Addressable market size and growth rate - Future technology or economic changes that could affect the market - Potential for meaningful market share gains or losses ### 5. Management Quality - Consistency of mission and goals - Execution against stated goals - Financial performance during current leadership tenure - Degree of board independence from management ## Step 2: Category Rankings After completing the company-level analysis, rank all companies relative to one another for each of the five categories above. ### Ranking rules - Use numeric rankings only - 1 = strongest / best - 41 = weakest / worst - Every company must receive one rank in each category - Do not use ties unless absolutely necessary ## Step 3: Overall Attractiveness Ranking Create one overall ranking of all companies based on the totality of the analysis. ### Overall ranking rules - 1 = most attractive - 41 = least attractive - Base the ranking on all five categories together, not on any single metric ## Step 4: Tiering Place each company into exactly one of the following groups based on overall attractiveness: 1. Above average companies 2. Average companies 3. Below average companies ## Output Format Structure the response in the following order: 1. Company-by-company analysis 2. Rankings for Nature of Business 3. Rankings for Competitive Positioning 4. Rankings for Customer Leverage 5. Rankings for Growth Potential 6. Rankings for Management Quality 7. Overall attractiveness ranking 8. Three-tier grouping ## Writing Instructions - Be concise, specific, and comparative - Apply the same standard across all companies - Avoid generic statements unless necessary - State assumptions where data is limited - Do not skip any company or category - Prefer plain English over overly academic language - Use tables wherever helpful for rankings or tiering ## Optional Scoring Upgrade If helpful, you may also assign a 1 to 10 score for each category before producing the forced rankings, as long as the final output still includes the required rank orderings.
No verdict
Panel:Gemini, GPT-5, Claude, and 2 more
May 18, 2026
# Japanese Companies Comparative Analysis Framework Please answer for all companies (listed below) the following questions. After answering the questions, please rank each relative to the other companies on the relative strength for each question. The rankings should be 1 for the very best and the highest number for the worst on each category. Then please rank how attractive each company is versus the other companies based on the answers to the questions in totality. After this, separate all companies into one of 3 groups: 1. Above average companies 2. Average companies 3. Below average companies ## Companies - SMC - Fanuc - Mitsubishi Electric - Omron - Keyence - Daifuku - THK - Yaskawa - Kokusai - JEOL - Disco - Advantest - Lasertec - Ulvac - Screen - Tokyo Seimitsu - Tokyo Electron - Nitto Denko - Renesas - TDK - Taiyo Yuden - Kioxia - Minebea - Nitto Boseki - Hoya - Shin-Etsu - Rohm - Ibiden - Kyocera - Nidec - Socionext - Sumco - Murata - NEC - Sony - Nintendo - Hitachi - Nomura Research Institute - Fujitsu - Nikon - Resonac ## Questions ### Nature of business - Required capital intensity over time? - ROIC compared to cost of capital? - Margins versus competitors? - Direction of ROIC and margins over time? ### Competitive positioning - Nature of competitive advantage? - Number of significant competitors? - Change in number of significant competitors over time? - Potential for displacement by new technology? ### Leverage over customers - Importance of products to end customer? - Product's cost as a percentage of customer product cost or bill of materials? - Alternative products from competitors to customer? - Customer switching costs? ### Growth Potential - Addressable market size and growth rate? - Future technology and economic changes that could affect addressable market? - Potential for significant changes in share? ### Quality of management - Consistency of stated mission and goals? - Track record of financial and strategic execution versus stated goals? - Financial performance during tenure? - Degree of board independence from management?
The most attractive Japanese industrial companies are a concentrated group of 12–13 firms—primarily in semiconductor equipment, materials, and high-moat B2B automation—that possess structurally superior economics, including through-cycle RO…
White smoke
Panel:Claude, GPT-5, Magistral, and 2 more
May 18, 2026
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