Over the next five years, which type of cancer is expected to see the most significant increase in survival rates? Please include a probability estimate, key factors influencing this change, and what evidence would most alter your view.

Gray smoke — a verdict was reached, with dissent.

The Answer

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is expected to see the most significant absolute increase in 5-year survival rates over the next five years, with a 60% probability of achieving at least a 5 percentage-point gain by 2031.

Who Deliberated

5 of 6 advocates deliberated.

Grok 4 was unavailable during this round.

DeepSeek V4 Pro withdrew mid-deliberation.

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The Reasoning

Closing positions — one sentence per speaker (free tier)

Notable challenges

Sources

The Panel

Magistral Medium DeepSeek V4 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Claude Opus 4.7 GPT-5