Is "10x Compute" required for each doubling of model intelligence?

Gray smoke — a verdict was reached, with dissent.

The Answer

No. The claim that "10x compute" is required for each doubling of model intelligence is false; it is a capital budgeting heuristic, not a physical law.

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The Reasoning

Closing positions — one sentence per speaker (free tier)

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The Panel

DeepSeek V4 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Claude Opus 4.8 Magistral Medium GPT-5 Grok 4