WHITE SMOKE 6 of 6 advocates 2026-05-13

By 31 Dec 2028, will Amazon’s custom AI accelerators (Trainium + Inferentia) account for at least 10% of global data center AI accelerator revenue (training + inference), excluding general-purpose CPUs? Include a probability estimate, key uncertainties, and factors that could influence this outcome.

A verdict was reached, no dissent.

The Bottom Line

No, Amazon’s custom AI accelerators (Trainium + Inferentia) will not account for at least 10% of global data center AI accelerator revenue by December 31, 2028, but the outcome is a near coin flip, with a synthesized probability of approxim…

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