By 31 Dec 2028, will Amazon’s custom AI accelerators (Trainium + Inferentia) account for at least 10% of global data center AI accelerator revenue (training + inference), excluding general-purpose CPUs? Include a probability estimate, key uncertainties, and factors that could influence this outcome.

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The Answer

Amazon’s Trainium and Inferentia accelerators will likely account for 8–12% of global data center AI accelerator revenue by 31 December 2028, with a 55% probability of reaching or exceeding 10%.

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